Recent SIP losses rise even as inflows hold steady

The correction in equity markets has pushed many of India’s newer systematic investment plan (SIP) investments into losses. Data from Thurro’s platform shows that recent SIP cohorts are showing negative returns, particularly those that began investing during elevated market levels in 2024. Outcomes vary sharply by start period, with earlier cohorts remaining in positive territory due to lower average acquisition costs. 

While a large share of recent cohorts is below cost, aggregate SIP flows have continued to rise through the correction. 

SIP flows have continued to rise 

India’s SIP ecosystem has expanded steadily over the past five years. Monthly contributions have increased 3.7x to INR 298.4 billion in February 2026 from INR 80.2 billion in January 2021. Contributions reached peak levels of around INR 310 billion in December 2025 and January 2026. Over the same period, the number of active SIP accounts has risen to 104 million, compared with around 54 million in April 2022. 

The data shows that monthly SIP contributions have not declined during the current correction phase. Even as equity markets moderated after late 2024, investors continued to deploy capital through systematic investment plans. This pattern is visible across the monthly contribution series, which shows continued growth without interruption over the period covered. 

SIP contributions have remained steady through the correction 

The correction is sharper in midcaps and smallcaps 

Equity markets entered a correction phase after a strong rally from mid-2022 through September 2024. During the rally, broader market indices recorded substantial gains, followed by a decline from peak levels. As of 27 March 2026: 

• The Nifty 50 has declined by about 13% from its September 2024 peak 
• The Midcap 100 index is down approximately 10% 
• The Smallcap 100 index is down approximately 19% 

Despite these declines, index levels remain above their January 2022 base levels across all three segments. This reflects the scale of gains during the preceding rally. However, outcomes differ across cohorts because units were accumulated at materially different market levels, particularly for investors entering during the 2024 peak period.  

Midcap and smallcap indices have corrected more sharply than large caps 

Recent cohorts account for most underwater observations 

The cohort analysis simulates a fixed monthly SIP across all start months from January 2022. For each cohort, the average cost of acquisition is calculated based on total investment and units accumulated, and compared with current index levels. The results show: 

• Nifty 50: 15 out of 37 cohorts are below cost. These are primarily cohorts that started between June 2023 and September 2024. 
• Midcap 100: 12 out of 37 cohorts are below cost, with the most affected cohorts starting between January and September 2024. 
• Smallcap 100: 17 out of 37 cohorts are below cost, with some cohorts witnessing double-digit losses 

Earlier cohorts—particularly those starting before mid-2023—are generally in positive territory. 

Cohorts starting in 2024 show the highest incidence of negative returns

Cohort outcomes and flow trends 

The results show that a significant share of SIP investments made in recent years—particularly those initiated during 2024—are currently below cost on a 12-month basis. At the same time, earlier cohorts are generally in positive territory, and monthly SIP contributions have continued to increase. Flows, however, have not adjusted to losses. Monthly contributions remain near peak levels, indicating that investor behaviour has not yet responded to drawdowns. 

The key risk is discontinuation. If recent cohorts—who entered near peak valuations—begin to stop SIPs, the current monthly flow base could moderate. Discontinuation data will be the primary indicator to track over the next two to three quarters. 

A more detailed version of this analysis, including underlying datasets and extended breakdowns, is available to clients on request. For access, please write to contact@thurro.com.  

Cover photo credit: AI generated image

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