IndiGo’s December disruption did not break demand

Load factor for IndiGo remained resilient through December even as on-time performance deteriorated, underscoring the operational nature of the shock. Passenger demand held up through IndiGo’s worst operational month in years. The clearest evidence lies in utilisation rather than headlines.

Data from Thurro’s platform shows that despite widespread cancellations—around 4,500 flights—and delays earlier this month, IndiGo’s average passenger load factor for the first 15 days of December stood at 86.9%, only 2.4 percentage points lower than the 89.3% it averaged in November. Aircraft that operated continued to fly largely full, even as operational reliability deteriorated.

Break this data further and it gives you a much better insight. Passenger load factor fell sharply to 78.5% on 5 December from 91.3% a day earlier, recovered to 87.6% on 6 December, slipped again to 79.9% the following day, and then stabilised. By 16 December, IndiGo’s passenger load factor had climbed back to 89.6%.

In aviation, demand stress typically shows up first in utilisation, as it did during the COVID-19 pandemic shock when aircraft began flying half-empty. That did not happen here. The dip in utilisation was brief, and passenger volumes recovered quickly even as service reliability deteriorated sharply and public outrage intensified across news and social media.

Another relevant point here is the number of cancellations. Before the disruption, IndiGo operated 2,200 daily flights, implying that the cancellations were equivalent to roughly two days of normal operations and unlikely to materially distort monthly utilisation.

IndiGo’s daily passenger load factor dipped briefly during early December disruptions but recovered quickly, returning to high-80% levels within days

Operational disruption began in the first week of December, intensifying over the weekend, leading to large-scale cancellations across major airports. IndiGo attributed the breakdown to a confluence of factors: winter schedule changes, adverse weather, congestion across the aviation system, minor technology issues, and the implementation of revised flight duty time limitation (FDTL) norms governing pilot rest and night operations.

Credit rating agency subsequently noted that IndiGo was the most affected airline under the revised FDTL framework, given its high aircraft utilisation and extensive night-time operations, which left thinner operational buffers compared with peers. Essentially, a system optimised for efficiency struggled to absorb a regulatory shift.

IndiGo’s immediate response involved calibrated schedule reductions, a system-wide reset of crew rosters, and a network reboot to restore stability.

The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) adopted a dual approach. Temporary relief was granted from Phase II night-duty FDTL norms until 10 February 2026, subject to bi-weekly reviews. At the same time, the regulator imposed accountability measures: 

• a 10% reduction in scheduled capacity for the winter season, 
• show-cause notices to the CEO and COO, and 
• an ongoing inquiry into planning and resource management lapses.

Alongside, the aviation regulator also enforced passenger protection measures, including expedited refunds and mandated compensation. 

While demand held up, the stress surfaced in execution.

The most visible casualty of the disruption was on-time performance. IndiGo’s average on-time performance fell to 56.3% in the first half of December, down from 67.2% in November, marking its weakest performance in over a year. 

As with passenger load factors, a daily break-up of on-time performance provides clearer insight. On-time performance had already been volatile through October and November but began deteriorating sharply from 30 November. At the height of the disruption, on-time performance fell to around 3.7% on 5 December, before recovering in the days that followed. This magnitude of deterioration has been unprecedented in recent months.

On-time performance deteriorated sharply in early December, reaching extreme lows before stabilising, highlighting the operational nature of the recent disruption

On-time performance has been central to IndiGo’s operating model and brand since its inception, forming one of the three explicit promises it made to passengers alongside low fares and hassle-free travel. Built on high aircraft utilisation, fast turnarounds, and tightly controlled processes, punctuality was not just a service metric but the airline’s primary competitive differentiator in India’s early low-cost aviation market.

Even as on-time performance deteriorated, passenger load factors stayed intact, implying that the disruption was operational rather than demand-led.

IndiGo has not disclosed a quantified revenue loss from the disruption. However, the scale of impact is evident.

Approximately 4,500 flights were cancelled during the first week of December. The airline revised its Q3 FY2026 guidance, moderating capacity growth expectations and signalling a mid-single-digit downward moderation in passenger unit revenue, versus earlier expectations of flat-to-slight growth.

In addition to lost revenue from cancellations, the airline incurred costs related to refunds, statutory compensation, travel vouchers for severely impacted passengers, and elevated customer-support expenses, which might all show up in the next quarterly earnings. Rating agencies expect near-term financial metrics to weaken, though IndiGo’s sizeable cash buffer provides resilience.

Two structural insights emerge from December’s data. First, elevated load factors underscore the structure of Indian aviation. Despite service disruption and public dissatisfaction, passenger utilisation remained high. 

With roughly 65% domestic market share, IndiGo dominates capacity on many routes, as we pointed out earlier.

Read more: IndiGo’s hidden advantage: a quiet surge in competition-free routes

We had pointed out that a rising share of competition-free flying gave IndiGo greater pricing power and reduced substitutability for travellers. December’s data reinforces that reality: dissatisfaction does not easily translate into sustained demand defection in a highly concentrated market.

Second, February becomes the key checkpoint. The DGCA’s temporary FDTL relief expires on 10 February 2026. What markets will watch is whether full compliance can be achieved without renewed stress on punctuality or network stability once exemptions roll off.

December was not a demand shock. It was an operational stress test. February will determine whether it remains an exception—or becomes a reference point.

Cover photo credit: X/@IndiGo6E

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